03 October 2014

2014 Predictions: The Snapshot

Bottom line (up front): It doesn’t look good for Colorado Republicans.  Again.
Image used from here

2012 was a rough year for Colorado Republicans.  So was 2010 (despite it being a peak GOP year in Colorado and the “Tea Party wave” occurring… well, everywhere, it seems, but Colorado), 2008, 2006, and 2004.  Looks like 2014 will be following suit, because not enough has been done to change Colorado’s political environment.  Republicans are still playing catch-up to a decade-old strategy that has long since been improved upon by the other side.

Below are a snapshot of my predictions, with a brief explanation for each set.  On Monday, I’ll be posting the specifics on each district and explanation for my predictions.  That will be a long post.  Because of the number of races covered, there really isn’t a way to make it short, although I’ve done what I can from 2012 to make it more compact without reducing the amount of necessary info. 

Now, without further delay, my 2014 predictions…

Statewide: 3D/2R — think it is likely that Republicans do what they have done the last 2 off-cycle elections (2010 and 2006): Lose at the top of the ticket, but win other races statewide.  This year, however, I don’t think Republicans will be as lucky as they were in 2006 and 2010, winning only one—maybe two—other statewide races, instead of all three.

Congressional: 3R/3D/1 Toss-up — The Congressional Districts were re-drawn in 2011 to be essentially non-competitive, with the thought that CD6 would eventually be a Democratic district.  Is 2014 the year for it to go D?  I guess we’ll find out.

CU Regents: 2D/1R — No change from the current make-up of the board in this election.

State Board of Education: 2D/1R No change from the current make-up of the board in this election.

State Senate: 18D/17R (8R/5D/5 Toss-up) — The make-up of the State Senate for seats not up for election in 2014 is 10D/7R, for a total of 18D/17R currently.  I believe that SDs 3 and 11 will flip back to D, which brings us to 20D/15R (the make-up pre-recall).  I believe SDs 5 and 16 will go R, and 19 and 22 will stay D, so there will be NO net change to the State Senate.

State House: 35D/28R/2 Toss-up — I think there may be either no net gain in the State House (toss-ups going one each to Rs and Ds), or there will be a one-seat pick-up for Republicans (if both go R).  There is, of course, the lesser chance of a Democratic pick up (if both go D), but I think that is relatively unlikely.

Ballot Initiatives — While I am not making predictions on ballot initiatives (I lack the data to make an informed conclusion there), my recommendations are as follows:
  • YES on Prop. 104 
  • NO on Amendment 68 and Prop. 105 
  • No recommendation on Amendment 67 (I will likely be undervoting on that one myself)

In other wordsthere will be either net losses or no change across the board for Republicans if the results are as pessimistic as I expect.  I hope I’m wrong, because I’m honestly kind of tired of saying “I told you so,” at this point.  Unfortunately, I think I’ll be more right than wrong... again.

Comments?  Challenges?  Let me know!

1 comment:

  1. Oh Sarah, you are missing out. . .SD20 flips, and it won't be close - 52% or more.